“Adult education and composition of labour supply in India”

 

Citation: Bhakta, R. and A. Ganesh-Kumar (2017). “Adult education and composition of labour supply in India”. In S. Mahendra Dev (Ed.) India Development Report–2017, Oxford University Press, New Delhi.

 

Abstract: The linkage between adult education (AE) and the skill level of labour force is well recognized as a crucial factor determining the overall economic performance of a country. However, the impact of progress in AE on the labour supply especially in terms of the composition of labour supply by education levels, is not well understood. We addresses this gap in the literature in this chapter. Towards this, we first takes stock of the trends and determinants of the progress in AE made so far in terms of three indicators of education attainment, viz., adult literacy rate, percentage of adult population that has completed higher education, and average years of schooling. The analysis here makes use of the information on education attainment of individual members of households contained in the quinquennial rounds of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) on Employment-Unemployment spanning the period 1999-2000 to 2011-12. We then review the literature on the determinants of adult education attainment and the role of public expenditure in this regard. Next, we examine the trends in the composition of labour supply in terms of their levels of education attainment and their sector of employment. Three types of labour in terms of their education levels are considered here, viz. (i) illiterate & primary schooled; (ii) secondary-schooled; and (iii) graduates & above. We then model the linkage between adult education attainment and the composition of labour supply by education levels using the econometric relationships on the determinants of adult education attainment estimated by Bhakta (2015). Using this we project the expected future trends in the composition of labour supply by education levels up to the year 2025-26. The projections are made under several alternative assumptions on the trends in public expenditure on education and its sub-components. These projections show that (i) the percentage of high-schooled and graduates & above in the labour force rise in all scenarios; (ii) the illiterate & primary schooled labour force shrinks in absolute size; and (iii) increasing public expenditure on education, higher education in particular, does help in accelerating the supply of high-schooled and graduates & above labour, though the effect is not very dramatic. These expected future trends could have serious implications for the relative wage rates of the three types of labour by education levels, with its attendant impacts on the major sectors that employ them.