By Dr. Amit Kara, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, U.K.
Date & Hour: 19-September-2018, 4:00 pm
Venue: Seminar Hall 1, IGIDR, Mumbai 400 065.
Title: Modelling Brexit on NiGEM.
Abstract: The future relationship between the UK and the EU remains unclear with less than seven months before the UK exits from the EU. There is a spectrum of possible outcomes that I will discuss and also assess the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. Each of these options comes with a cost which we have quantified with the help of the the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) global macroeconomic model, NiGEM. NiGEM is a global macroeconomic model with separate country models for almost all the OECD economies and also other countries such as India, Brazil, South Africa, China etc. The model links the global economy through real economy as well as financial market channels and is used extensively by the Institute’s clients for forecasting and to also answer policy-related questions. In this presentation I will introduce the model and discuss the our approach to assessing the cost of Brexit to the UK economy.