› › Ashima Goyal

Ashima Goyal

ag05-cal
  Office Telephone : +91-22-69096512
  Email id : ashima@igidr.ac.in
 Click here to view Homepage
 
Ashima Goyal is widely published in institutional and open economy macroeconomics, international finance and governance, with more than a hundred articles in national and international journals. She has also authored and edited a  number of books including Macroeconomics and Markets in Developing and Emerging Economies (Routledge: UK. 2017) and A Concise Handbook of the Indian Economy in the 21st Century (OUP: India, 2019). She edits the Routledge  journal Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies; has provided consultancy to ADB, DEA, GDN, UNDP, RBI, UN ESCAP and WB; is active in the Indian policy debate; and has served on several government committees including the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, the RBI technical advisory committee for monetary policy, boards of journals and educational and financial institutions. Currently she is a Member of India's Monetary Policy Committee, on the Advisory Board of egrow Foundation, an independent director at Edelweiss Financial Services and SBI General Insurance. She contributes a monthly column to the Hindu Business Line. She was a visiting fellow at the Economic Growth
Centre, Yale University, USA, and a Fulbright Senior Research Fellow at Claremont Graduate University, USA. Her research has received national and international awards. She won two best research awards at GDN meetings at Tokyo (2000) and Rio de Janeiro (2001), was selected as one of the four most powerful women in economics, a thought leader, by Business Today (2008); was the first Professor P.R. Brahmananda Memorial Research Grant Awardee for a study on History of Monetary Policy in India since Independence (2011), which was published by Springer in 2014; received the SKOCH Challenger Award for Economic Policy (2017); Hindu College OSA Distinguished Alumni Award and 20th FLO FICCI GR8 Beti Award for Excellence in Economics (2018).

Books and Journal Special Issues

  • A Concise Handbook of the Indian Economy in the 21st Century, Goyal, A. (ed.). OUP: New Delhi. 2019. Second edition. ISBN: 9780199460991. [About]
  • Macroeconomics and Markets in Developing and Emerging Economies, Ashima Goyal. Routledge: UK. 2017. [About]
  • Special Issue Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, ‘Unconventional Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets’, 9(2). 2016. June. DOI:10.1080/17520843.2016.1180835.[About]
  • Handbook of Indian Economy in the 21st Century: Understanding the Inherent Dynamism, Ashima Goyal (ed). OUP- India, 2014. [About]
  • History of Monetary Policy in India Since Independence. Ashima Goyal (ed). Springer Briefs in Economics. India: Springer. 2014. [About]
  • Special Issue Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies. ‘Policy complexity, rate volatility and potential buffers’, Vol. 8 (1) and (2), 2015. March. [About]
  • Macroeconomics and Markets in India: Good luck or good policy? Ashima Goyal (ed). Routledge- UK, 2012[About]

Articles in Journals

  • 'External Debt Financing and Macroeconomic Instability in Emerging Market Economies' (with Rajeswari Sengupta and Akhilesh Verma), Empirical Economics, forthcoming, 2021. [Earlier version] 
  • 'News, Noise and Indian Business Cycle' (with Abhishek Kumar), Bulletin of Economics Research, forthcoming, 2021. [Earlier version]
  • 'Liquidity management and monetary transmission: empirical analysis for India', (with Vikas Charmal) Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. Published online July 13, 2021. [Full text]
  • 'Asymmetry, Terms of Trade and the Aggregate Supply Curve in an Open Economy Model', (with Abhishek Kumar) The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Volume 24, November, 2021, e00206. [Full text]
  • 'Behavioural equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments: Evidence from large emerging markets', (with Krittika Banerjee), Economic Analysis and Policy, Volume 70, 414-436, 2021. [Full text]
  • 'What Influences Aggregate Inflation Expectations of Households in India?' (with Prashant Parab), Journal of Asian Economics, 72, February, 101260. 2021. [Full text] 
  • ‘Monetary Spillovers and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in Emerging Markets’ (with Krittika Banerjee), International Journal of Emerging Markets, forthcoming. 2020. [Earlier version] 
  • ‘Inflation Convergence and Anchoring of Expectations in India’ (with Prashant Parab), Economic and Political Weekly, forthcoming. 2020. [Earlier version]
  • ‘Post Covid-19: Recovering and sustaining India’s growth’, Indian Economic Review. Online publication: August 6, 2020. [Full text]
  • 'How Far Is India’s Nominal Exchange Rate from Equilibrium?’ (with Krittika Banerjee), Economic and Political Weekly.  55(11) pp. 29-34. March 14. 2020. [About] 
  • ‘A DSGE Model-Based Analysis of the Indian Slowdown’ (with Abhishek Kumar), Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy. 11(1). 2020. February. DOI: 10.1142/S1793993320500040.[About]
  • ‘Policy Transmission in Indian Money Markets: The role of liquidity’ (with Deepak Kumar Agarwal), The Journal of Economic Asymmetries. Vol. 21. June. 2020. [Full text]
  • ‘Indian Growth is not Overestimated: Mr. Subramanian you got it wrong’ (with Abhishek Kumar), Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies. 2020. [About]
  • ‘Correlated Shocks, Hysteresis, and the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from India’ (with Gagan Goel), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. Published online: 11 Oct 2019. [About]
  • ‘Overreaction in Indian Monetary Policy’ (with Abhishek Kumar), Economic and Political Weekly, 54(12): 12-14. March. 2019. [About]
  • ‘Modeling Consumers' Confidence and Inflation Expectations’ (with Prashant Parab), Economics Bulletin, 39(3): 1817-1832. 2019. [Full text]
  • ‘Estimating the Relationship between the Current Account, the Capital Account and Investment for India’ (with Vaishnavi Sharma). Foreign Trade Review. 54 (1): 29-45. 2019. [Full text]
  • ‘Government Securities Market: Price Discovery, Monetary Management and Government Borrowing,’ Economic and Political Weekly, Special issue on Money, Banking and Finance, 54(13): 44-58. 30 March. 2019. [Full text]
  • ‘Evaluating India’s Exchange Rate Regime under Global Shocks’, Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 11(3): 304-321. 2018. [Full text]  
  • ‘Portfolio Composition and Valuation Effects in Emerging Market Economies’ (with Vaishnavi Sharma), International Economic Journal. Published online September 5. DOI:10.1080/10168737.2018.1517814. [Full text]
  • ‘Money and Business Cycle: Evidence from India’ (with Abhishek Kumar), The Journal of Economic Asymmetries. 2018. [Full text]
  • ‘The Indian Fiscal-Monetary Framework: Dominance or Coordination?’ International Journal of Development and Conflict. 8 (1): 01-13. June. 2018. [Full text]

  • ‘Slowdown in Bank Credit Growth: Aggregate Demand or Bank Non-performing Assets?’ (with Akhilesh Verma), Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 12 (3): 257-275, August. 2018.  [Full text]
  • ‘Demand-led Growth Slowdown and Inflation Targeting in India’, Economic and Political Weekly. Special issue on Money, Banking and Finance, 53(13): 79-88. 2018. [Full text]
  • ‘Active Monetary Policy and the Slowdown: Evidence from DSGE Based Indian Aggregate Demand and Supply’ (with Abhishek Kumar), The Journal of Economic Asymmetries. 2018. [Full text]  
  • ‘Government Expenditure in India: Composition and Multipliers’ (with Bhavya Sharma), Journal of Quantitative Economics. Published online 22 January 2018. [Full text]
  • ‘The Effect of Oil Shocks and Cyclicality in Hiding Indian Twin Deficits’ (with Abhishek Kumar), Journal of Economic Studies, 45 (1): 27-45. [Full text]
  • ‘Macroeconomic Policy for an India in Transition’, Economic and Political Weekly, 52(47): 31-37. 2017. [Full text] 
  • ‘Multiple Reserve Currencies and Renminbi Use’ (with Satyendra Kumar Gupta), Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 8(2): 1-35. June. 2017. [Full text] 
  • ‘Estimating the Indian Natural Interest Rate: A Semi-Structural Approach’ (with Sanchit Arora), Economic Modelling, 58, pp. 141–153. November. 2016. [Full text] 
  • ‘Conditions for Inclusive Innovation with Application to Telecom and Mobile Banking’, Innovation and Development. 2016. DOI:10.1080/2157930X.2016.1187845. [Full text] 
  • ‘Introduction: Unconventional Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets’, in Goyal, A., D. Nachane and S. Sarkar (eds.), Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, special issue on ‘Unconventional Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets’, 9(2). June. 2016. DOI:10.1080/17520843.2016.1180835. [Full text] 
  • ‘Why Tax Effort Falls Short of Tax Capacity in Indian States: A Stochastic Frontier Approach’, (with Sandhya Garg and Rupayan Pal), Public Finance Review. 2016. DOI: 10.1177/1091142115623855. [Full text]
  • ‘Payment Systems to Facilitate South Asian Integration’, South Asia Economic Journal, 16(2), 2015. [Full text] 
  • ‘Understanding High Inflation Trend in India’, South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, 4(1) 1–44. 2015. [Full text] 
  • ‘Optimality of Base Rate System of Loan Pricing of Developing and Emerging Market Economies: An Evaluation’, (with Jugnu Ansari), Banks and Bank Systems, Vol. 9(3), pp. 74-82. 2014. [Full text] 
  • ‘Separating Shocks from Cyclicality in Indian Aggregate Supply’ (with Shruti Tripathi), Journal of Asian Economics, 38, pp. 93-103. 2015. [Full text] 
  • ‘Introduction: Understanding Volatility in Emerging Markets’. Special issue on ‘Emerging Markets: Structure and Shocks’, Ashima Goyal (ed.), Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 7(1). [Full text]
  • ‘Sustaining Indian growth: Interests versus Institutions’, India Review, 14(3): 330-351. July-September. 2015. [Full text] 
  • ‘Stability and Transitions in Emerging Market Policy Rules’(with Shruti Tripathi), Indian Economic Review, 49(2), 153-172, July-December. [Earlier version] 
  • ‘Psychology or Cyclicality: Rural Wage and Inflation Dynamics in India’ (with Akash Kumar Baikar), Economic and Political Weekly, 50 (23), pp. 116-125. June 6, 2015. [Full text]
  • ‘Purchasing Power Parity, Wages and Inflation in Emerging Markets’, Foreign Trade Review, 49(4), pp. 327-347. 2014. [Full text] 
  • ‘Banks, Policy, and Risks: How Emerging Markets Differ’, International Journal of Public Policy, 10 (1, 2 & 3): 4–26. 2014 [Full text] 
  • ‘Inferring India's Potential Growth and Policy Stance’ (with Sanchit Arora), Journal of Quantitative Economics, 11(1 & 2). January-July [Full text] 
  • ‘The Future of Financial Liberalization in South Asia’, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 19(1): 63-96. June, 2012. [Full Text]
  • ‘The Indian Exchange Rate and Central Bank Action: An EGARCH Analysis’ (with Sanchit Arora), Journal of Asian Economics, 23(1), February, 2012. [Full text] 
  • ‘New Keynesian Aggregate Supply in the Tropics: Food Prices, Wages and Inflation’ (with Shruti Tripathi), International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 4(4): 330-354, 2011. [Full text]
  • ‘A General Equilibrium Open Economy Model for Emerging Markets: Monetary Policy with a Dualistic Labor Market’, Economic Modelling, 17(2): 112-132, April, 2011. [Full text]
  • ‘Sustainable Debt and Deficits in Emerging Markets’, International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 4(2), 2011 [Full text] 
  • ‘Distant Labour Supply, Skills and Induced Technical Change’, Information Analysis and Policy, 19(2): 133-150, June 2007. [Full text] 
  • ‘Exchange Rate Regimes: Middling Through’ Global Economic Review, 35(2): 153-176, June 2006, [Full text] 
  • ‘Corporate Social Responsibility as a Signaling Device for FDI’, International Journal of the Economics of Business, 13(1): 145-163, February, 2006, [Full text] 
  • ‘Asian Reserves and the Dollar: Is Gradual Adjustment Possible?’ Global Economy Journal, 5 (3), Article 3, [Full text] 
  • ‘Real and Financial Sector Interaction under Liberalisation in an Open Developing Economy’, (with Shridhar Dash), Meteroeconomica, 51(3): 257-283, 2000. [Full text]
  • ‘Sticky Relative Prices, Dynamics and the Closure Debate’, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 190(2), 1996-97. [Full text]
  • ‘Growth Dynamics in a General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Model for India', Journal of Policy Modeling, 16(3): 265-289, 1994. [Full text]

Articles In Books

  • ‘Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations: An Analysis using IESH data’ (with Prashant Parab), chapter 24  in William A. Barnett and Bruno S. Sergi (Ed.), Recent Developments in Asian Economics, Vol. 28. Massachusetts, United States. 2021. [About]
  • ‘Indian Banks and the Prevention of Corruption Act: Freedom and discipline’, chapter 6 in S. Mahendra Dev (ed.), India Development Report 2020, New Delhi: IGIDR and Oxford University Press. Forthcoming. 2020. [Earlier version]
  • ‘After Liberalizing Reforms: The importance of domestic demand’ (with Pulapre Balakrishnan), Chapter in Goyal, A. (ed.), The Concise Handbook of Indian Economy in the 21st Century. Second edition, pp: 35-63. 2019. [About]
  • ‘Emerging Markets Perspectives on G-20 Led Financial Reforms’ (with Akhilesh Verma). Chapter 1 in Rajat  Kathuria and Prateek Kukreja (eds.) 20 Years of G20: From Global Cooperation to Building Consensus, pp. 19-36. Springer: Singapore. ISBN : 9789811381065. 2019. [About]
  • ‘Monetary Policy Transmission in India’, Chapter 3 in S. Mahendra Dev (ed.), India Development Report 2017, pp. 35-48, New Delhi: IGIDR and Oxford University Press. 2018.[Full Text]
  • ‘Propagation Mechanisms of Inflation in India: An Empirical Investigation’, Chapter 1 in Pradeep Agarwal (ed.) Sustaining High Growth in India. pp. 27-54. Cambridge University Press: New Delhi. 2017. [About] 
  • ‘Emergence of cross-border taxation and firm behaviour’, (with Sandhya Garg), Chapter 4, in Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS): The Global Taxation Agenda, Parthasarathi Shome (ed.), pg 73-93. Wolters Kluwer (India) Pvt Ltd: Mohalli, Punjab. 2017. [About] 
  • ‘Foreign Exchange Markets, Intervention and Exchange Rate Regimes’, Chapter 23 in Malabika Roy and Saikat Sinha Roy (eds.) International Trade and International Finance: Explorations on Contemporary Issues, pp. 469-492. New Delhi: Springer India. 2016. DOI: 10.1007/978-81-322-2797-7_23. [Earlier version]
  • ‘Banks Competition, Managerial Efficiency and the Interest Rate Pass-through in India’ (with Jugnu Ansari), Chapter 15 in Risk Management Post Financial Crisis: A Period of Monetary Easing, Jonathan A Batten, Niklas F Wagner (eds.), CSEFA 96 special issue, Vol 96, Emerald publishers. 2014 [Earlier version] 
  • ‘External shocks’, Chapter 3 in S. Mahendra Dev (ed.), India Development Report 2015, pp. 36-51, New Delhi: IGIDR and Oxford University Press. 2014. [Earlier version] 
  • ‘Institutions, Incentives and Interests’. Chapter 5 in Bimal Jalan and Pulapre Balakrishnan (eds.). Politics Trumps Economics. pp. 65- 83. New Delhi: Rupa. 2014.[Full Text]
  • ‘Propagation Mechanisms in Inflation: Governance as Key’, India Development Report 2012, chapter 3 in S. Mahendra Dev (ed.), New Delhi: IGIDR and Oxford University Press, pp. 32-46, 2012. [Full text] 
  • ‘Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Performance in South Asia’. Routledge Handbook on South Asian Economies, Chapter 10 in Raghbendra Jha (ed.), Routledge Handbook on South Asian Economies, pp. 143-155, Oxon and NY: Routledge. 2011. [Earlier version] 
  • 'Hedging' entry in Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Ramkishen S. Rajan, Kenneth A. Reinert (eds.), Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009. [About]

(See full list in CV and more links in homepage.)

Select Recent Online Interviews

  • Goyal, A. 2021. Using the snowball effect in Indian post Covid-19 paths to fiscal consolidation. IGIDR Working paper no. WP-2021-016, Available at: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2021-016.pdf
  • Goyal, A. and P. Parab. 2021. Qualitative and Quantitative Central Bank Communications and Professional Forecasts: Evidence from India. IGIDR Working paper no. WP-2021-014, Available  at: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2021-014.pdf
  • Goyal, A. and P. Parab. 2021. Effectiveness of Expectations Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from India, IGIDR Working paper no. WP-2021-011, Available at: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2021-011.pdf
  • Banerjee, K. and A. Goyal. 2021. Current Account Imbalances: Exploring Role of Domestic and External Factors for Large Emerging Markets, IGIDR working paper no. WP-2021-001. Available at: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2021-001.pdf
  • Bose, R. and A. Goyal. 2020. 'Disaggregated Indian Industrial Cycles: A spectral analysis', IGIDR working paper no. WP-2020-033. Available at http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2020-033.pdf
  • 'Modeling Heterogeneity and Rationality of Inflation Expectations Across Indian Households' (with Prashant Parab), IGIDR working paper no.WP-2019-002. 2019. [Full text] 
  • ‘Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Misalignments in Large Emerging Markets: A Re-look through Panel Cointegrating Estimation’ (with Krittika Banerjee), IGIDR working paper no. WP-2020-001. 2020. [Full text]
  • ‘How far is the Indian nominal exchange rate from equilibrium?’ (with Krittika Banerjee), IGIDR working paper no. WP-2019-030. 2019. [Full text]
  • ‘Inflation Convergence and Anchoring of Expectations in India’ (with Prashant Parab), IGIDR working paper no. WP-2019-023. 2019. [Full text]
  • ‘External Debt Financing and Macroeconomic Instability in Emerging Market Economies’ (with Rajeswari Sengupta and Akhilesh Verma), IGIDR working paper no. WP-2019-013. 2019. [Full text]
  • ‘News, Noise and Indian Business Cycle’ (with Abhishek Kumar), IGIDR working paper no. WP-2019-010. 2019. [Full text] 
  • ‘Modeling Heterogeneity and Rationality of Inflation Expectations Across Indian Households’ (with Prashant Parab), IGIDR working paper no.WP-2019-002. 2019. [Full text]

Current Research:Fiscal and monetary policies, emerging market DSGEs, flexible inflation targeting, trend cycle decomposition, Indian growth volatility and sustainability, cross border flows, exchange rate regimes, global governance, institutions and incentives, digital currencies.

  • Co-editor Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies in Emerging Market Economies (Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, see(www.informaworld.com/mfeme) since 2007.
  • UNESCAP: Payment Systems to Facilitate South Asian Intra-regional Trade’. ESCAP South and South-West Asia Development Papers 1403. 2014. [Full text]
  • ADB: ‘Understanding High Inflation Trend in India’. Working Paper Series, no. 24. 2014. [Full text]
  • UNESCAP: ‘Inflationary pressures in South Asia’, published in Asia-Pacific Development Journal, Vol. 17(2), pp. 1-42, December, 2010. [Full text] 
  • ADB: ‘Asian Clearing Union: Current Status and the Way Forward’. ADB Project Report, 2011.
  • First Professor P.B. Brahmananda Memorial Research Grant Award: “History of Monetary Policy in India since Independence” [Full text]
  • Ministry of Finance: ‘Financial Regulation and the G 20: Options for India’ for ICRIER-DEA Project on G-20. 2011, published as: ‘Financial Regulation and the G20: Options for India’ chapter in The G20 Macroeconomic Agenda: India and the Emerging Economies. Parthasarthi Shome (ed). Cambridge University Press- Delhi. 2014.
  • RBI: ‘Monetary Policy, Forex Markets, and Feedback Under Uncertainty in an Opening Economy,’ Development Research Group, Department of Economic Analysis and Policy, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, Study No. 32, 2009, (with R. Ayyappan Nair and Amaresh Samantaraya). [Full text] , published as ‘Intervention and Signaling: Interaction between Central Banks and FX Markets in an Emerging Market’, Singapore Economic Review, 63(1): 193-225. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0217590816500326.
  • World Bank-IMF-GDN: project on “Reducing Endogenous Amplification of Shocks from Capital Flows in Developing Countries” published as: Incentives from Exchange Rate Regimes in an Institutional Context’, Journal of Quantitative Economics, 6(1&2), pp. 101-121, January & July, 2008. [Full text] 

a) Current Ph.D. students 

  • Akash Kumar Baikar: Financial Intermediaries and Macroeconomics. Thesis submitted
  • Abhishek Kumar: Three Essays on New Keynesian Macroeconomics. Submitted Thesis.
  • Prashant Mehul Parab: Evolution of Expectations Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: An Indian Experience
  • Krittika Banerjee: Exchange Rate Policy: Role of Policy Spillover from other Countries and Policy Cooperation. Submitted Thesis.

b) Current M.Phil. students

  • Sritama Ray: Identification of the Aggregate Supply Relationship for India: The Role of Correlated Demand and Supply Shocks. Submitted Thesis.
  • Vikas Charmal: Liquidity Management and Policy Transmission: Empirical Analysis for India. Thesis submitted.