Author: R. Nagaraj, Amey Sapre and Rajeswari Sengupta
Title: Four years after the Base-Year Revision:Taking stock of the debate surrounding India’s National Accounts Estimates
Abstract: In 2015, with the release of the 2011-12 base-year GDP series the Central Statistical Office (CSO) substantially revised the way GDP is calculated in India. According to the new series, India is the fastest growing large economy in the world. Other trusted measures of the state of the economy convey a discordant picture. This discrepancy has led to an active debate over the last few years. Numerous studies by academic scholars have identified, analysed and documented the problems with the kind of data used in the new series as well as with the specific methodologies applied. The criticisms have cast persistent doubts on the new GDP series and have dented the credibility of India’s National Accounts Statistics. The debate seems at an impasse. In this study we provide a comprehensive summary of the issues surrounding the new GDP series as highlighted by the academic experts and outline recommendations about a possible way forward to resolve India’s GDP data crisis.
Keywords: GDP measurement, National Accounts Statistics, National Income, Manufacturing, Gross Value Added, Base year revision
JEL Code: E01, E11